In Queensland, the Senate vote reflected the lower house vote with a swing to the Liberal party and away from Labor. No candidate outside Tasmania was the subject of a significant BTL campaign like Molan was. Charis Chang CharisChang2 15 comments On the other hand, a voter who votes 1 below the line for the ticket leader and then continues down the party ticket in order may not be aiming to personally vote for that ticket leader, so much as to control (or even in some cases deliberately exhaust!) Available for everyone, funded by readers. There is also the question (Ross Leedham has posted some interesting correlations on Twitter here) of whether unpleasantries and division of resources in Sydney harmed the Liberal vote in the House of Reps there, or whether Molan just happened to do well in areas where his party was doing badly. Derryn Hinch, Fraser Anning, Brian Burston and the Liberal Democrats senator, Duncan Spender, have all lost their Senate seats but One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts is still in with a chance in Queensland. And the highest BTL percentage recorded by a top-of-ticket candidate under the new system is Katy Gallagher's 7.6% in the ACT Senate this year. The progressive quota is calculated by taking the number of formal votes counted so far, dividing it by the number of vacant Senate positions in the relevant state or territory +1, then plus 1. Auth KB 410 Macquarie SH 7004. Despite his credentials, Molan has persistently failed to gain secure positions on the Senate ticket, having contested separate preselections before the 2016 election in anticipation of both half-Senate and double dissolution elections, and respectively managing only the unwinnable fourth and seventh positions. Senate voting rules introduced in 2016 but tested for the first time under a half Senate election successfully culled the ranks of the minor parties. A 1 above the line is counted as a vote for the ticket leader, so ticket leaders may have personal support hidden inside their party's above-the-line vote. Prior to the election, the Coalition had 31 senators. The government was.

The data provided in this table can be filtered by selecting the different state and territory buttons and/or by typing a keyword into the available text field. Labor’s Lisa Singh successfully campaigned below the line in 2016. (I suspect that a few sneaky inner-city Liberal voters may have voted for Molan with an eye to exactly that outcome.) The division into above the line and below the line boxes has existed since 1984, but from 1984 to 2013 voting below the line required numbering pretty much all the boxes with very few errors in order for a vote to be formal.

At this Senate election we have seen some candidates such as Garland and Pesec get more than half their group's vote in BTLs, but that was partly because of voter confusion about non-party boxes. The provisional quota provides an indication of how many seats a Senate group will potentially win in each state and territory. There is a lot of discussion surrounding Senator Jim Molan's below the line vote in the NSW Senate race. In this system there were naturally many cases of candidates in the larger states polling well over Molan's 130K without being their party's highest listed candidates. I don't remember posting any estimate of what Molan might get before the election, but I wouldn't have thought it to be quite that much. This isn't because revolutions against party ticket orders never happened. It may be that such a voter would have accepted any order their party put candidates in. Since Senate reform was passed prior to the 2016 election, Molan's c. 3% vote has been the highest for any down-ticket mainland candidate, and it will also be the highest below-the-line vote for any candidate outside Tasmania or the ACT. But there were fewer votes back in those days, so the proportion required to match Molan's raw vote tally in the larger states wasn't seen. Molan's six figure tally has been described as a "record" personal vote in terms of votes received, but that claim requires a lot of historic unpacking. (July 2018), "Margin Of Error" Polling Myths (Aug 2018), The Importance Of Keeping #politas On Topic (July 2018), Polling And The Mt Wellington Cable Car (2014 onwards, rolling post), The Keating Aggregation 1990-3 (March 2018), LegCo Voting Patterns 2014-8 (March 2018), What Happened When The Previous Government Moved To Change Tasmania's Donations Laws (March 2018), How Often Are Federal Newspolls Released? Personally, although I do not like Molan, this case only strengthens by belief that a full implementation of Hare-Clark with Robson Rotation would strengthen democracy in the Senate and contrary to what some others think, would be workable even in larger states. For this reason whoever is top of the ticket always attracts some personal vote by virtue of that fact alone. (July 2017), How Many Federal Electorates Have You Visited? I know the actual number of votes would obviously be less since it’s just an eighth of the state, but her share of both the actual below-the-line votes, and her ratio of below-the-line to above-the-line votes had to be near records, particularly considering that Victoria still has GVTs above the line. After 1949, Tasmanian down-ticket candidates would often break 3%, but in the mainland states, this almost completely stopped. The best-case scenario for the Coalition could see it pick up an extra three seats in the Senate, to give the government 34 seats, five short of the 39 needed to pass legislation. However, such comparisons are misleading. Last modified on Mon 20 May 2019 01.07 BST. Also, bucking the party ticket tended to be a small state thing. Those who were not up for re-election but are already in the Senate include Australian Conservatives’ Cory Bernardi, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Centre Alliance. (July 2014), Unpopular State Premiers Have Dire Historic Fates (Dec 2013), Tasmanian Lower House: 25 or 35 Seats?

their preferences outside that party's ticket. But in Tasmania it has been eclipsed by the down-ticket votes of Lisa Singh (6.1% in 2016 and 5.7% this year) and also Richard Colbeck (4% in 2016), as well as by Richard Colbeck, Nick McKim and Jacqui Lambie (twice) as ticket-toppers. What Might 2PP Voting Intention Have Really Looked... Seat Betting As Bad As Anything Else At Predicting... Jim Molan's Senate Result In Historic Context. Molan established the personal campaign after his party bumped him down the ticket to the unwinnable fourth spot.


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